With the new year celebrations just over, it seems that the stock markets have had a breath of new life. Overall stock portfolio is up and I do hope that this bull run continues. Even with global uncertainties in America and Europe, it seems that people are still pretty optimistic about the future.
What else can we expect from 2011? Here are how things are playing out in my head.
Scenario 1 - Europe and America sink due to debt concerns. Asia's domestic demand not sufficient and developed enough to propel the rest of the world economy. Economy starts to slump by mid or end 2011 due to some silly event.
Scenario 2- whole world recovers and we see another bull run for 2 to 3 years and people who were thinking that Scenario 1 will take place end up cursing their luck for the missed opportunities of the best bull run in Asia.
So which scenario do you think will take place? Let's do a poll!
Ello FF,
ReplyDeletePersonally, it seems that a lot of analysts and people are coming aboard the it's-going-to-be-a-rosy-2011 train. The papers for one, are constantly announcing good news. Also, I've a couple of friends who've never invested before but are now asking about investing.
And you know what they say about herd and investing. Yep, they're wrong most of the time. So though I'm still invested, I'm quite cautious about the environment at the moment. As such, I'm quite a scenario 1 kinda guy. In fact, I'm hoping for a scenario 1 cos I missed the opportunity the last time haha.
You may be interested in these two posts below on the outlook for 2011 by Jim Rogers and James Turk which basically says they're of the scenario 1 opinion. Do check em out if you've time. I'd appreciate your popping by FF.
http://therichkidwannabe.blogspot.com/2011/01/precious-metals-outlook-1h2011.html
http://therichkidwannabe.blogspot.com/2010/12/couple-of-videos-of-jim-rogers-doing.html
I'm curious though. What's your opinion on how things will play out? Scenario 1 or 2?
Cheers,
~K
Hi,
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't matter if you have filled your pot in 2008/2009.
Bull market is known to run longer than a bear market so it may mean that this bull still has leg to run towards 2007 peak.
ReplyDeleteHi CW8888,
ReplyDeleteYou are right 100%.
Bear usually suddenly appears - trigger by also the sudden appearance of the by now famous black swan.
Bear rarely sneaks behind your back without your knowledge.(Rarely by the slow and steady declining economic conditions that catch you off-guard.) Anyway, why are you caught off-guard? Are you dreaming in the markets?
Yes, sometimes we did.
Some "market experts" consider it's only truly a Bear with the appearance of the black swan first.
There must be the element of surprise besides the drastic sudden drop in prices in the markets.
Do you agree?
I tend to agree.
I see 2011 as similar to 2010. General up trend with minor corrections along the way.
ReplyDeleteI am more worried with end 2012 or early 2013. Unless we have QE3, it's about the time previous US and ECB stimulus will fade, while the tightening from Asian govts during 2011 will bite.
Bond vigilentes may also wake up to US govt's debt at this time - turning their attention from Europe to US.
US and Western Europe are merely kicking the can down the road. Switching private company debts to public govt debt. These debts have to be paid, defaulted, or inflated out. Either way, slower growth in US and Western Europe.
I don't buy the Asia de-coupling theory (not yet, anyway).
Hi FF,
ReplyDeleteI'm holding a more neutral view. Although the market feels bullish, one still have to pick the correct stock. It will be harder to find a multi-bagger this year.
I also have a similar poll in my site and most are feeling bullish as well.
Cheers!
I think the bears and bulls does not matter as long as one is buying on long term basis.
ReplyDeletei will like to know
ReplyDelete