Sing Dollar Rises with Record GDP Growth Forecast

With Singapore's GDP expected to grow at a record 13 to 15 percent in 2010, the Sing Dollar is also expected to rise to curb inflation. MAS has declared that it will maintain a modest and gradual appreciation stance for the currency at the next policy meeting.

I have always been quite interested in economics. Unfortunately, I have never been trained in this subject. The closest I got was to study Economics 101 in university and that was pretty much about supply and demand lines. We hardly talked about currency appreciation and inflation.

This is my version or laymen's language of what is going on:

1. Singapore's output in terms of products and services have been pretty high over the past 2 quarters. As such, the expected GDP figures are going to be between 13 to 15 percent. GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product and is basically a measure of the country's economic output. For the long term, a healthy GDP growth is around 3 to 5 percent.

2. When GDP rises, inflation is also expected to increase. This is because firms require more workers and start bidding against one another to attract workers so as to produce a higher output. This leads to an increase in the prices of goods and services and thus leads to inflation. When GDP grows rapidly, inflation is also expected to rise rapidly. Most economists try to keep a low steady inflation rate of 2 to 6 percent. That basically means that there will ALWAYS be inflation in Singapore as it is judged that low rate of inflation is good for the economy. So do take note that inflation is not some airy fairy thing that only takes place once in a blue moon. Most countries try to keep a positive inflation as they view that deflation is bad for the economy. In that sense, we can expect inflation to be always with us.

3. By appreciating the Singapore currency, inflation will be kept in check to the low rate. MAS is not trying to abolish inflation. Rather, it is trying to achieve the targeted inflation rate of 2 to 6 percent which is deemed healthy.

I am not an economist and I am also not from MAS. But I guess this is the linkage between GDP, inflation and currency appreciation. At least, this is the way I understand it to work =)

Of Grenadine Syrup, Kolo Mee, Aimlessness and 1984

I went to Giant today and stared at the Grenadine Syrup that cost ten bucks per bottle. Cool. I could make my own tequila sunrise with this final ingredient. I have been eyeing it for sometime already but the thought of spending $10 for sugar water made me think twice. Alcohol by itself is already fattening and the last thing I want to do is to make myself any fatter. So I didn't buy it in the end.

Had lunch at the Sarawak Kolo Mee place. I am not sure why they call it Kolo mee. I am not sure what Kolo is supposed to mean. Anyway, the place was almost empty. The waitress greeted me warmly and I took a seat. The last time I had eaten the Kolo Mee was like more than 3 years back. Now I understood why the place was empty. A bowl of Kolo Mee which is basically like noodles, pork bits, prawns, wanton and char siew cost over $6. Together with the drink that I ordered, lunch cost me a whopping $8.55!

Nevertheless, I must say that the Kolo Mee was really tasty. I am pretty sure they drenched it in lard oil or something cos it was really super duper tasty. But I guess I won't be eating it anytime soon simply because paying six over bucks for a small bowl of noodles doesn't make economic sense to me. I know of $2.50 wanton mee that taste just as good. There is this Pontian Wanton Mee outlet at various hawker centres which are really worth it and yummy....

Feeling aimless the past few days. My wife asks me why I am not talking to her. I also do not know what to say. I just feel like I have achieved quite a bit of the goals I have set for myself in life. In the past, it was stuff like get married, get a job, travel to Europe, study abroad, have children, buy a car, get my own flat, etc etc. And I realise that I have already sort of achieved all these goals already. Whereas my peers still have the fun and joy of looking for their life partners or are looking forward to buying a car or flat, I have already sort of BEEN THERE DONE THAT. I am just feeling so aimless.

Perhaps it is time to setting more goals. Or perhaps it is about discovering what my true purpose in life is.

I have just finished reading Ninety Eighty Four by George Orwell. I thought I read it in the past but I must have been mistaken. Because I do not remember it being so saucy. My goodness. To think that I recommended the book to my wife when we first met... hahahha.. she must have thought that I must be quite "loose". I figured that I must have skimmed read it the first time or probably just jumped right to the end of the book without reading the middle parts. Anyway, 1984 is a good read. I really liked the parts about history only existing in written records and in our minds line of argument. Wicked if you ask me.

If I don't exist on written records and I don't exist in people's minds, does it mean that I do not exist at all?

On to reading my next book : One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest

Being Contented Helps You Save Money

There are many ways to save money. I know of probably 1001 ways to save money and I am pretty sure that most people know how to save money too. But I guess there is an underlying reason why people do not save money. It is because they have not learnt contentment.

Being contented with the things that you have in life is one of the first steps when it comes to saving money.

Whenever I spend money, I realise that I can actually save money if I curb my WANTS and simply be contented with the little things in life. This is probably true for many of us and it's perhaps the reason why we are constantly buying new things and upgrading our cars and stuff.

Learn to be contented and you will find that you can save alot more money without much effort.

Economics of Real Estate

Real estate has been a popular topic of conversation in the financial circles for most of the decade. First it was the hottest asset to own, with flipper and investors buying every home they could get their hands on. Today it is about as toxic as, anything found in your local dump. I find real estate to be a valuable asset for many reasons. It provides shelter and comfort, a place to eat and sleep, and to those who are raising a family memories. Everyone remembers their early years growing up in their home, and all the fun they had in the backyard playing with friends and family. It was a shame that many just bought homes to just resell in a short time frame. Not that I can blame them, it was the easiest way to make a living. With every bank willing to give real estate investors a loan because of rapidly appreciation home prices, who wouldn’t try and get in the game.

If every asset were to only appreciate then basic financial theory would be flawed. The demand would far outweigh the supply if everyone wanted to buy these assets that only went up. Unfortunately the banks lent out money to those who did not understand basic economics. For that matter banks did not understand basic economic either. The real estate market was not at equilibrium. The demand far outweighed the supply due to the fact that the banks were the outside force contributing to the demand. The definition of equilibrium is simply a state of the world where economic forces are balanced and in the absence of external influences. If the banks did not supply that external force, than the demand for assets would not have been so great, and the prices would not have escalated to the levels they did.

The real estate market got so far away from equilibrium that is having to snap back to attain a level where supply equals demand. At the moment there is little to no demand for many of these assets. This is also due to the fact that banks that once supplied endless amounts of loans to anyone who asked for them, are not loaning out money. In both instances economic theory has proven true. The demand became out of touch with equilibrium and so did the amount of loans issued. In both cases, they are in the process of correction which will take time. The current state of the market is such that there is so much supply that prices will have to come down to meet the demand. Not only are people hesitant to buy a home, but the banks that once lent money to anyone are being rather picky to those who want to take out a mortgage.

Today, loan availability is reserved for those with a steady employment history and a good credit score. The supply of available homes will hopefully continue to be bought up by investors and buyers who are able to obtain loans. If the supply remains at the highs that it is currently we should expect to see a continued falling of prices. It will come to the point where homes are cheaper to buy from the banks than they are to build. Bank homes will be coming on to the market for the next few years. Unless there are inflation pressures, the prices will fall.

This presents a buying opportunity to any foreign buyer that has a stronger currency that the Unites States Dollar. The exchange rate for these buyers will be able to buy them more home for the money here in America. By looking at exchange rates on the internet or a forex account, those interested in buying real estate in America can calculate the cost of the property in their own currency. Let us hope that our currency remains weak enough to attract foreign buyer to help rid of us of the supply. It is imperative for the health of our country that that real estate market is in equilibrium, and not gyrate in one direction or the other.

The following article is a guest post from Forex Fraud. While written for a United States audience, it is still relevant to Singapore in certain ways. If you wish to contribute guest posts to this site, please email sgfinancialfreedom@gmail.com

Paul the Octopus is NOT Psychic

Okay. So it managed to guess the results correctly for a number of games. But if you are starting to believe that Paul the octopus is a psychic, then you are either plain stupid or downright crazy. Paul the octopus is just an octopus looking for food in the fish tank.

The statistical odds of choosing a correct team with just 2 tanks to choose from is simply 50-50. It does not take a genius to realise that an animal has a probability of choosing the correct tank for more than 10 times in a roll. It is just statistics at play. If Paul had made a mistake earlier on, he would not be so famous. The fact that he has made so many "CORRECT" guesses is simply due to the fact that it is a 50-50 chance each time that he gets the correct answer. Paul is not psychic, he is just hungry.

If Paul was really psychic, he would be able to choose the correct team to win the world cup with all the 32 countries inside his tank. Now that would be really psychic. (You seriously think the octopus knows that the World Cup is going on????????????????) Duh.........

The same thing applies for fund managers and their investment returns. Don't be fooled by randomness. Anyone who still doubts what I say ought to read Nicholas Nassim Taleb's book Fooled by Randomness.

But of course there will be those certain few people who will still like the romantic idea that the silly octopus is really psychic and knows which team will win the World Cup.

Can You Trust Your Financial Planner?

Below is the first article that I contributed to CPF's IM$avvy. It discusses the current state of the financial planning industry in Singapore. I hope readers find this useful.

Being too trusting of others can sometimes work against us in financial planning. Too often, we are not skeptical enough when it comes to financial advice offered by others. Can you trust your financial planner? Is he really providing independent and unbiased advice or is he just trying to close a sale?

Advisory Business or Sales Business?

When the Financial Advisers Act was first introduced in Singapore, many thought that the financial planning industry would come up with a new breed of financial advisors who were independent and unbiased. While the fee based or fee-only model of financial advice is slowly taking off, most people in Singapore are still unwilling to pay a financial planner for the time and energy he takes to craft a financial plan. As long as the market is not ready, financial planners will continue to be compensated based on commissions.

A thin line separates the financial advisory business and the sales business. A sales person is one who derives his income from commissions. On the other hand, the financial advisory business is supposed to provide independent and unbiased advice to clients. It is important to realize that potential conflict of interests arise when financial planners earn commissions from the sale of financial products.

If your financial planner is earning a commission from you, can you trust that he will make the best financial decision for you? If a financial planner is selling you a product that you know very little about, how can you trust that the product is suitable for you?

Financial Products and Imperfect Information

I just read a book and it talked about a wallet auction.

Imagine that I pull out my wallet from my pocket and placed it on the desk in front of me. How much will you offer for the money in it? Whatever the case, any buyer of my wallet will be certainly worse off as I will only accept offers that they should not be making. I know what I am selling but the buyer does not know exactly what he or she is buying. It all boils down to information asymmetry or imperfect information.

The same theory applies to financial products. Imperfect information exists and the buyer has to overcome his lack of knowledge of the situation or of the seller. Market economies often deal with this problem through the mechanisms of advertising and reputation. As a consumer of financial products, your perception of a certain company’s reputation might influence you to purchase the product or invest in certain instruments. Or perhaps you have seen some advertisements that offer yields and gains that are too tempting to resist. Or perhaps, your friend had recommended a “reputable” financial planner that you can trust.

The reason why buyers rely on reputation and advertising is that they are not willing to spend the time to overcome the information asymmetry that exists. For example, a doctor gives me a prescription for a certain ailment. I trust his recommendation because of his reputation and credentials even though I am clueless about the medication that he has just offered me. In this case, it is unwise of me to spend 5-6 years of my time going to medical school just to breach the information asymmetry that exists between him and me.

But are financial products so complicated that we cannot take some of our own time and effort to breach this information asymmetry? Can you still trust that your financial planners will give you the best recommendations when there is a potential conflict of interests?

Trust Yourself: Financial Education

One simple way to overcome this information asymmetry would be for the consumer to become educated in financial matters such that they are better able to understand their own financial situation and make better financial decisions. This would help them better understand the financial products that they wish to purchase. For the beginner, the CPF IMSavvy website has a comprehensive list of articles that should serve as a good foundation for anyone interested in becoming more financially literate.

Are you willing to invest the time and energy to learn more about financial planning? Or do you still trust that a financial planner will do the best job for you?

Why Financial Knowledge is Not Enough

For most people, financial knowledge is actually easily acquired through the internet, books, friends or various other sources. Financial knowledge is simply the simple know-hows of basic financial planning. Yet, it is perhaps surprising that even when many people do possess this knowledge, not many actually act upon it. In a certain sense, having financial knowledge is not enough to guarantee financial success.

Financial knowledge is not enough by itself. It is akin to knowing about healthy living and eating but still being overweight and living a very unhealthy lifestyle. When I am choosing what to eat for lunch or dinner, I know what are the healthy food choices. I know that I ought to stay away from fizzy drinks. I know that I ought to exercise alot more. Yet even when I am armed with all this knowledge, I do not act upon it. I continue to eat unhealthy food and skip my planned exercise sessions. What results (love handles, tummy, failing IPPT) is not due to my lack of knowledge about healthy living.

The same case applies to most people when it comes to financial knowledge. They might know the need to save and invest their money. They know the importance of planning for their retirement. They know the importance of insurance. The problem is not really a lack of knowledge. The problem is that they fail to act upon it. I know of people who are well-versed in terms of financial knowledge but whose financial health itself are in a "mess".

In Bloom;s Taxonomy of Learning, it has been identified that people need to acquire Knowledge (K), Skills (S) and Attitude (A). As such, we can see that knowledge is just part of the entire learning process. Having knowledge alone does not mean you will succeed. It is an interplay between the K, the S and the A.

Financial Knowledge is not enough. We need to act upon that knowledge. We need to work on our attitudes that are so ingrained within us.