Portfolio Update

I sold 5 lots of NOL at $1.83 a piece. That was a few days back.

Was that a wise decision?

Only time will tell as the price has rocketed up past $1.90 recently.

I am now on the look out for stocks that have the opportunity to zoom up further in this current bullish market. However, I do not want to hold "risky" stocks that might go bust or have dubious prospects (remember China Print and Dye?)

I want to have a stock that I can hold and sleep with (even if the price drops).

So far, I can only think of 1 stock that is not too high in its current price. SingTel...

Is it Possible to Time the Market?

I have always been wondering how good my technical analysis skills are in timing the market.

However, I have come to realise that when I speak about timing the market, I actually have no standard definition to measure my success or failures at timing the market.

If I could put it simplistically, timing the market would mean being able to buy the stock at its lowest and selling at its highest. That is of course a good definition.

However, one faces the problem of the timeframe.

When I buy a stock at say $1.00 and sell it a month later for $1.10, I might be very happy at the profit that I have made which is quite close to 10% return on capital after subtracting the various admin fees and brokerage charges.

However, should the stock rise to $1.20 the next week, does that mean that my timing of the market has failed?

Or let's say that the stock drops to $0.90 the next week, does that on the other hand mean that I am successful at timing the market?

The problem I guess is the time frame. Because if I were to look at the stock price say 1 year later, the price might be up or down compared to my sell price and I would then determine my success on whether my SELL price is above or below the current price of the stock.

So when we say that we can time the market, what do we REALLY mean?

What is the timeframe we are looking at? How do we measure our successes? Do we really keep good records of our trades to see whether a buy and hold strategy might have earned us more money or does our active trading actually earn us more money?

Rich People Do Plastic Surgery

Today I saw a person who had plastic surgery.

Age was quite old but because of it, she looked much younger.

Seems like only rich people will bother to do plastic surgery. Poor people simply do not have the means to do so.

Is plastic surgery wrong?

Another Contest with Prize Money

I was thinking of creating another contest similar to the Free $50 to Give Away contest that I held not too long ago.

Some initial thoughts would be to get people to invest with say an imaginary $10,000 using a buy and hold strategy (e.g. starting at the start of a certain month) and then see whose portfolio has grown the most by the end of the month. I think things like trading and stuff might be too complicated for me to monitor so perhaps it would be just a simple buy at the start of the month and then value it at the end of the month.

In this way, we can all get some ideas about each other's investment strategy and stuff.

Any suggestions?

5 Smart Financial Moves to Make in Your Twenties

There was this article in Yahoo provided by iFAST on some of the things twenty somethings can do to make themselves financially more prepared for the future. It summarises the article with these 5 things that it says young people should do.

•Save at least six months of your monthly salary in an emergency fund
•Put aside at least 10% of your income towards goals that you want to achieve
•Start budgeting and sticking to your plan.
•Use credit cards responsibly (pay off your balance before the due date)
•Acquire a hospitalisation plan, critical illness cov¬erage and death coverage

Out of this 5 goals, I have already done 4.

The only one that I have not done is the part about budgeting and sticking to my plan. Seriously, who in this world still uses a budget? I really cannot find the discipline to do any budgeting. I just make sure that I do not spend too much money.

Anyone of you able to do all the 5 things listed here?

Evening at Anchorpoint

I was out in the evening with my family at Anchorpoint.

Anchorpoint is part of Frasers Centrepoint Malls.

I must say that over the years, Anchorpoint has been renovated quite well. Compared to around 10 years back, there are a lot more shops and the crowd is spilling over from IKEA.

The only gripe I have against it is the carparking. The carpark is simply too small and it was completely full today when I tried to enter. Ended up having to park at IKEA instead.

Anyway, I was at the bookshop and noticed that there was this woman at the cashier and she looked like she was REALLY bored and in a real bad mood. Her whole face was like a sour prune and she looked really tired.

She reminded me of the saying "Making a dying instead of making a living".

People were out in full force enjoying their Sunday. But here was a poor woman in her thirties, working her butt off to pay her bills. She sure did not look happy working on a Sunday evening and it looked like she was really tired from the standing.

I hope that she manages to get some rest even after she knocks off work today.

It is important to earn money but it is equally important to know how to spend money and enjoy life.

After all, a recent survey showed that people who brought home an income of $5000 per month reported themselves as being more happy. However, in the same article found in Straits Times titled "What price happiness?", those earning less than $2000 per month were enjoying life the most.

Some thing to think about? Are you truly enjoying life? Is making a living becoming an excuse for you not to enjoy life?

3 Bubbles to Watch Out For in 2010

Future bubbles are getting more and more difficult to predict. At least it seems so.

The Federal Reserve in the United States even with their huge regulatory arm and research departments could not forsee the bubble that resulted in the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernake constantly downplayed the risk of the subprime bubble that eventually led to a full blown global financial crisis. It seems from this scenario that central banks might not be effective as a central agency to forecast risks and bubbles that are likely to form. Even if they are successful, certain events might still crop up along the way which are totally unexpected and not forecasted by these public servants.

A bubble forms when there is over enthusiasm and an appetite for risk that is not commensurate with returns.

As we move into 2010, bubbles are likely to form again. Here are a few bubbles that I can think of which might bring about the next market correction or "crisis".

1. Gold Bubble. Gold has been increasing in price for the past few years. It seems that a gold bubble is likely especially since investors are so positive about the prospects of gold. The US dollar is indeed falling but that ought not to justify the performance of gold. A gold bubble in the making?

2. China Bubble. We have all heard it for so many years. Everyone is so positive over the economic outlook of China. They have achieved double digit growth and their yuan is undervalued. Could there be something lurking under this China growth engine to pull the entire world economy down? Shoddy accounting practices...dubious growth figures...over optimism..you bet!

3. Commodities bubble. We have heard that the price of garlic is going up in China. In 2008, commodities were also hot. Jim Rogers has been championing the rise of commodities. Oil prices have also been going up. Is this the next bubble in the making if investors continue to be so optimistic about commodities.

Bubbles will continue to be a permanent feature in the stock market. Where there is asymmetric information and money earning opportunities that seem unlimited, bubbles will always form. It is impossible for anyone to forecast or predict when or what the next bubble will look like. We can however be aware that bubbles do form and when valuations depart from the normal logic or state of things, we can be certain that something is about to burst.

There is no harm in investing during a bubble. Just make sure you stay nimble and get out before the bubble bursts!