Easy Money Already Been Made for 2009

Since we all are aware that the easy money has already been made in the stock market, perhaps it is time to think of divesting whatever gains we have.

Yes, the stock market looks poised to soar even further but one question still remains in my mind: "How much higher can the stocks that I am holding go?"

Coming into the new year, I have already divested my First REIT and a portion of Neptune Orient Lines. I will sure invest in them if the price comes down a bit more. In the mean time, I am just content to sit on all my cash.

Another stock that I have been thinking of liquidating is Ascott Residence Trust. DBS afterall had a price target of $1.32 and since it is currently trading at $1.34, I am thinking that it might make a good sell price. The only thing I fear is that the stock will rise further after I have sold it.

Ascott REIT afterall is trading at 5.6% yield, has a NAV of $1.32 and has a gearing of 40++%

Good time to sell out now and collect back later?

2010 will be a difficult year to make money in my opinion. I would like to think that the small caps will be playing catch up and this will likely include some S-shares. However, as we all know, small caps tend to be very volatile and you might end up stuck with some lousy shares if you liquidate your more stable blue chips & should any crisis hit us again.

WaveSecure featured on Lifehacker

For you who don't know, the Lifehacker website is quite popular amongst web users.

Recently, I was pleasantly surprised to see that WaveSecure was featured on Lifehacker. You can view it here.

Why I am pleasantly surprised is because the company that developed WaveSecure is based in Singapore and more importantly , a friend of mine is actually one of the founders. I am glad that he has found success in an area of his passion.

It lets me believe that I can also achieve something of the magnitude that he has achieved in my lifetime. This is despite me not topping my course in university and stuff.

Kudos to you my friend! I wish you further success in your business.

Money and Marriage

I was reading the Straits Times today on Money and Marriage and how the writer felt that it takes two to tango.

He suggests couples could ask each other these questions:

1. Do you know what insurance policies or investments you have?
2. Do you have the ability to manage money well?
3. Do you have absolute trust in the other person?

Taking the cue from the author, I picked up a conversation with the wife regarding the remaining car loan that we had of $23K ++

I started off: "So we still have a car loan of $23K++"

Wife: "Yup, want me to pay off? I got money in my bank."

Me: "Chey..I also have."

Wife: "Then you pay la"

Me: "I am making my money work hard. So as long as I can earn more than the car loan interest rate, it does not make sense to pay it off. Your one is sitting in the bank and if it is not working harder than the car loan interest, then maybe should use it to pay off."

Wife: "Yah lor. That's why I say use my money to pay off"

Me: " But we can invest it to get better returns."

Wife: "Then you help me invest."

Me: " Of course I can, but it is better you participate. Two heads are better than one. Always good to have a second opinion to make my investment strategy better."

Wife: "My investment knowledge is zero... that's why I leave it in the bank. My brain is used for other things."

Me: ""

Wife: "I don't know la. My only financial goal is to make sure my bank account stays above $78K"

Me: "..............................."

Why It Makes No Sense to Invest

Okay, the title of this posting might be a bit misleading.

It actually reads: "Why it makes no sense to invest your CPF-SA money"

As most of us know, the Special Account in our CPF or CPF-SA earns an interest of 4% per annum. Till the end of 2010, the first $60,000 in our CPF accounts also earn an additional 1% interest. For most of us, that means our money in the CPF-SA account is earning like 5% interest per year.

This is guaranteed and is entirely risk free!

As such, it makes little sense to invest your CPF-SA money unless you are able to find an investment which gives you returns at greater than 5%. Considering that one cannot invest their CPF-SA into high risk funds, it is difficult (in a certain sense) to be able to achieve returns of greater than 5%

As such, it makes a lot of sense to just keep your money in your CPF-SA for the time being unless you are able to find an investment that gives you greater than 5% per year.

Food for thought.

$2.20 For A Cup of Ribena

I was at a foodcourt just now and ordered a cup of ribena. It is shocking to find out that it actually cost $2.20 just for a small cup of ribena.

Imagine the profit margins that the drink stall is earning!

$2.20 could have bought me a thosai and a cup of coffee for my morning breakfast and I would still have change to spare.

The cost of living in Singapore is definitely going up.

I am pretty certain that many years ago, $2 could have bought one a plate of chicken rice. Now, it won't even get you a cup of Ribena.

I shall keep this entry in here as I would like to look back at this posting maybe in 20 years time and see how "cheap" ribena was then. I could then lament to my children and tell them that things used to cost so cheap then.

One can only imagine what the price of a cup of Ribena will cost in twenty years time.

Anyone dares to make a prediction and we will see who gets the closest price in twenty years time?

Portfolio Update

I sold 5 lots of NOL at $1.83 a piece. That was a few days back.

Was that a wise decision?

Only time will tell as the price has rocketed up past $1.90 recently.

I am now on the look out for stocks that have the opportunity to zoom up further in this current bullish market. However, I do not want to hold "risky" stocks that might go bust or have dubious prospects (remember China Print and Dye?)

I want to have a stock that I can hold and sleep with (even if the price drops).

So far, I can only think of 1 stock that is not too high in its current price. SingTel...

Is it Possible to Time the Market?

I have always been wondering how good my technical analysis skills are in timing the market.

However, I have come to realise that when I speak about timing the market, I actually have no standard definition to measure my success or failures at timing the market.

If I could put it simplistically, timing the market would mean being able to buy the stock at its lowest and selling at its highest. That is of course a good definition.

However, one faces the problem of the timeframe.

When I buy a stock at say $1.00 and sell it a month later for $1.10, I might be very happy at the profit that I have made which is quite close to 10% return on capital after subtracting the various admin fees and brokerage charges.

However, should the stock rise to $1.20 the next week, does that mean that my timing of the market has failed?

Or let's say that the stock drops to $0.90 the next week, does that on the other hand mean that I am successful at timing the market?

The problem I guess is the time frame. Because if I were to look at the stock price say 1 year later, the price might be up or down compared to my sell price and I would then determine my success on whether my SELL price is above or below the current price of the stock.

So when we say that we can time the market, what do we REALLY mean?

What is the timeframe we are looking at? How do we measure our successes? Do we really keep good records of our trades to see whether a buy and hold strategy might have earned us more money or does our active trading actually earn us more money?